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Japanese Grand Prix 2026

R · Prediction Verdict

What We Predicted
Qualifying Order (predicted)
P1RUSP2ANTP3LECP4PIAP5NORP6HULP7VERP8HAMP9GASP10HAD
Race Finishing Order (predicted)
P1LINP2BORP3GASP4HULP5NORP6LAWP7LECP8HAMP9COLP10SAI
What Happened
Qualifying Order (actual)
P1ANTP2RUSP3PIAP4LECP5NORP6HAMP7GASP8HADP9BORP10LIN
Race Finishing Order (actual)
P1ANTP2PIAP3LECP4RUSP5NORP6HAMP7GASP8VERP9LAWP10OCO
How Accurate
Qualifying Rank rho0.929Mean error: 0.443s
Race Order rho0.289
Pit Window Hit23%5/22 within ±2 laps

Spearman rho: 1.0 = perfect · 0 = random · −1 = inverted · all predictions locked pre-session

Where the Error Came From

Attribution data not available for this event. Requires track_evolution, driver_correction, and fuel_model artifacts.

Pre-Race ML Strategy Prediction
PredDriverCompoundPace/lap
P1LINSOFT1:31.359
P2BORMEDIUM1:32.829
P3GASSOFT1:34.028
P4HULMEDIUM1:34.165
P5NORSOFT1:34.235
P6LAWMEDIUM1:34.281
P7LECSOFT1:34.291
P8HAMSOFT1:34.446
P9COLMEDIUM1:34.580
P10SAIMEDIUM1:34.621

Simulated from FP2 degradation + FP3 baseline pace before race start. Locked pre-session.

Qualifying: Predicted vs Actual
DriverPredictedActualΔ
P1ANT1:29.4151:28.778-0.637s
P2RUS1:28.8481:29.076+0.228s
P3PIA1:29.5961:29.132-0.464s
P4LEC1:29.4611:29.303-0.158s
P5NOR1:29.8321:29.409-0.423s
P6HAM1:30.2881:29.567-0.721s
P7GAS1:30.3141:29.691-0.623s
P8HAD1:30.3261:29.978-0.348s
P9BOR1:30.3381:29.990-0.348s
P10LIN1:30.9511:30.109-0.842s
P11VER1:30.1651:30.262+0.097s
P12OCO1:30.5581:30.309-0.249s
P13HUL1:30.1301:30.358+0.228s
P14LAW1:30.3291:30.495+0.166s
P15COL1:30.9911:30.627-0.364s

Δ = actual − predicted · negative = faster than expected · positive = slower than expected

Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology