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Race Predictions

Circuit ConfidenceHigh-downforce circuit0.90 ρ avg2 events scored
2026 Season Accuracy
avg race ρ0.78
19 / 24 races scored14 strong calls (ρ ≥ 0.7)
Spearman ρ: 1.0 = perfect · 0 = random · predictions locked pre-session

Called 14 of 19 races with strong accuracy (ρ ≥ 0.7) — all predictions locked before the session · 5 races remaining.

Credibility Scoreboard

2026 Season · Prediction Accuracy

Recent accuracy
84%
Model driftStablescore 0.22
Events scored5this season
Correct4/5this season
Accuracy trendAZEMALSGPUSAMEX
Recent results
~AZE
✓MAL
✓SGP
✓USA
✓MEX

Predictions locked pre-session · Spearman ρ for races · MAE for qualifying

Predictions generated and locked before each session. Post-session accuracy updated automatically after each race.

Recent Form

Last 5 Events

→ Stableproj. ρ 0.83
EventQuali ρRace ρSQ ρSR ρPit hit
AZE
0.813
0.586
100%*
MAL
0.722
0.836
95%*
SGP
0.884
0.719
0.835
0.561
77%*
USA
0.777
0.889
100%*
MEX
0.714
0.719
55%*

ρ = Spearman rank correlation · 1.0 perfect · trend = last minus first in window · * SC-adjusted (hover for strict ±2)

Running Score This Season84%composite of 3 GP metrics
Race Order Accuracy0.78419 events scoredSpearman ρ · predicted vs actual finishing order · penalty-adjusted ρ: 0.784 (13 penalty events)
Quali Prediction0.85218 events scoredRank correlation · predicted vs actual qualifying order
Pit Window0.88819 events scoredSC-adjusted hit rate (strict ±2: 19%)
SC Probability39%correct direction · 18 events · pre-race static forecast, binary scored
Sprint Weekend AccuracySprintscored separately · not in GP composite
Sprint Race Order0.7666 events scoredSpearman ρ · predicted vs actual sprint race order
Sprint Qualifying0.8765 events scoredRank correlation · predicted vs actual SQ order
Top-3 Strike Ratelocked pre-session · any-order match
Race Podium Drivers21%19 events scoredCorrect P1/P2/P3 drivers in any order · exact order: 16%
Quali Top-3 Drivers6%18 events scoredCorrect P1/P2/P3 qualifiers in any order · exact order: 0%

Spearman ρ: 1.0 = perfect order · 0 = random · −1 = inverted  |  All predictions locked pre-session, scored post-race.

Per-Event History

#EventDateQuali ρRace ρSQ ρSR ρPit hitDivergences
1AUS2026-03-080.6600.80679%*—
2CHN2026-03-15—0.875—0.89488%*—
3JPN2026-03-290.9650.364100%*—
4MIA2026-05-030.8870.9750.9040.70289%*—
5CAN2026-05-240.8580.6790.8910.61494%*—
6MON2026-06-070.9250.55289%*—
7ESP2026-06-140.9530.879100%*—
8AUT2026-06-280.9670.926100%*—
9GBR2026-07-050.8580.642
0.651 adj
0.9210.955100%*—
10BEL2026-07-190.8930.917
0.962 adj
90%*—
11HUN2026-07-260.8830.849
0.831 adj
95%*—
12NED2026-08-230.7490.8820.8270.87174%*—
13ITA2026-09-060.9180.881
0.864 adj
100%*—
14ESP22026-09-130.9050.91363%*—
15AZE2026-09-260.8130.586
0.591 adj
100%*—
16MAL2026-10-040.7220.83695%*—
17SGP2026-10-110.8840.719
0.688 adj
0.8350.56177%*—
18USA2026-10-250.7770.889
0.776 adj
100%*—
19MEX2026-11-010.7140.719
0.727 adj
55%*—

* SC-adjusted — counts pits that fell inside a historically likely safety-car window for that circuit (hover for strict ±2 rate)

Season Highlights
Best Call
Miami Grand PrixMIA
Race ρ 0.975race finishing order
Biggest Miss
Japanese Grand PrixJPN
Race ρ 0.364race finishing order
Season Trajectorystable
avg ρ=0.78current ρ=0.72projected ρ=0.8319 races scored
Method Note

Race accuracy measures whether the predicted finishing order matches the actual result, using Spearman rank correlation (1.0 = perfect, 0 = random, −1 = inverted). Qualifying accuracy measures rank correlation between predicted and actual qualifying lap time order. Pit window accuracy measures whether the predicted pit lap was within ±2 laps of the actual pit lap. All predictions are locked before the session starts — no retroactive changes.

How we measure accuracy →

Past Predictions

R1Locked 6 Oct
Australian Grand Prix
Race ρ0.81Q 0.66
Result:P1RUSP2ANTP3LEC
Grid:P1RUSP2ANTP3HAD
Pit windows:
ALO L9 SSTR L9 SHAD L12 MANT L14 HBOT L16 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2PIA30%FP3RUS30%QRUS60%
R2SprintLocked 26 Sept
Chinese Grand Prix
Race ρ0.88SR 0.89
Result:P1ANTP2RUSP3HAM
Pit windows:
COL L9 MLIN L12 MOCO L15 MLAW L15 MSAI L16 M
R3Locked 6 Oct
Japanese Grand Prix
Race ρ0.36Q 0.96
Result:P1ANTP2HAMP3GAS
Grid:P1ANTP2RUSP3PIA
Pit windows:
ALO L10 SBOR L11 SLIN L18 MCRA L18 MHAM L19 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2ANT30%FP3ANT30%QANT60%
R4SprintLocked 2 Aug
Miami Grand Prix
Race ρ0.97Q 0.89SR 0.70
Result:P1ANTP2NORP3PIA
Grid:P1ANTP2VERP3LEC
Pit windows:
GAS L14 HBOT L16 MANT L18 HALO L20 MHAD L20 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
SQLEC60%QLEC60%
R5SprintLocked 2 Aug
Canadian Grand Prix
Race ρ0.68Q 0.86SR 0.61
Result:P1ANTP2HAMP3VER
Grid:P1RUSP2ANTP3NOR
Pit windows:
PER L9 SLAW L16 MLEC L18 HLIN L18 MBOT L20 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
SQANT60%QANT60%
R6Locked 2 Aug
Monaco Grand Prix
Race ρ0.55Q 0.93
Result:P1ANTP2HAMP3HAD
Grid:P1ANTP2VERP3HAM
Pit windows:
ALO L8 SSTR L8 SLAW L9 MBEA L10 MPER L16 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2HAM30%FP3ANT30%QANT60%
R7Locked 5 Aug
Barcelona Grand Prix
Race ρ0.88Q 0.95
Result:P1HAMP2RUSP3NOR
Grid:P1RUSP2HAMP3ANT
Pit windows:
LIN L5 MCOL L9 MGAS L9 MPER L12 MRUS L13 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2NOR30%FP3RUS30%QRUS60%
R8Locked 2 Aug
Austrian Grand Prix
Race ρ0.93Q 0.97
Result:P1RUSP2VERP3ANT
Grid:P1RUSP2LECP3HAM
Pit windows:
GAS L9 MALB L9 MPIA L12 MLAW L12 MVER L12 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2ANT30%FP3ANT30%QANT60%
R9SprintLocked 4 Jul
British Grand Prix
Race ρ0.64Q 0.86SR 0.95
Result:P1LECP2RUSP3HAM
Grid:P1ANTP2LECP3HAM
Pit windows:
ALO L17 MALB L20 HCOL L20 MHUL L20 MLAW L20 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
SQHAM60%QHAM60%
R10Locked 18 Jul
Belgian Grand Prix
Race ρ0.92Q 0.89
Result:P1ANTP2LECP3VER
Grid:P1ANTP2VERP3NOR
Pit windows:
NOR L16 MPIA L16 MCRA L16 MVER L17 MPER L19 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2ANT30%FP3NOR30%QANT60%
R11Locked 25 Jul
Hungarian Grand Prix
Race ρ0.85Q 0.88
Result:P1NORP2VERP3ANT
Grid:P1NORP2HAMP3LEC
Pit windows:
RUS L8 MPER L10 MNOR L10 MBEA L14 MVER L15 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2HAM30%FP3ANT30%QHAM60%
R12SprintLocked 22 Aug
Dutch Grand Prix
Race ρ0.88Q 0.75SR 0.87
Result:P1NORP2ANTP3RUS
Grid:P1NORP2ANTP3PIA
Pit windows:
PIA L10 MLIN L13 MNOR L13 MLEC L15 MALB L16 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
SQANT60%QANT60%
R13Locked 6 Sept
Italian Grand Prix
Race ρ0.88Q 0.92
Result:P1ANTP2RUSP3VER
Grid:P1GASP2RUSP3ANT
Pit windows:
ALO L9 SSTR L9 SLEC L9 SIWA L16 MBRO L16 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2LEC30%FP3RUS30%QRUS60%
R14Locked 24 Oct
Spanish Grand Prix
Race ρ0.91Q 0.91
Result:P1ANTP2VERP3NOR
Grid:P1NORP2ANTP3VER
Pit windows:
BEA L15 MGAS L15 MPIA L16 MANT L16 MRUS L16 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2ANT30%FP3PIA30%QPIA60%
R15Locked 26 Sept
Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Race ρ0.59Q 0.81
Result:P1RUSP2VERP3HAD
Grid:P1RUSP2LECP3PIA
Pit windows:
ALO L9 SSTR L9 SHAD L11 SLIN L16 MLAW L16 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2RUS30%FP3RUS30%QRUS60%
R16Locked 5 Oct
Malaysian Grand Prix
Race ρ0.84Q 0.72
Result:P1VERP2ANTP3HAM
Grid:P1VERP2HAMP3HAD
Pit windows:
PER L5 SBOT L6 SLIN L9 MNOR L9 SLAW L10 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2LEC30%FP3HAD30%QANT60%
R17SprintLocked 10 Oct
Singapore Grand Prix
Race ρ0.72Q 0.88SR 0.56
Result:P1VERP2LECP3ANT
Grid:P1VERP2LECP3HAM
Pit windows:
PER L11 SBOT L14 MLIN L16 MSAI L16 MALO L20 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
SQVER60%QVER60%
R18Locked 24 Oct
United States Grand Prix
Race ρ0.89Q 0.78
Result:P1ANTP2LECP3VER
Grid:P1ANTP2LECP3VER
Pit windows:
HAM L11 SOCO L16 MHAD L18 MRUS L19 MLAW L19 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2ANT30%FP3HAM30%QHAM60%
R19Locked 31 Oct
Mexico City Grand Prix
Race ρ0.72Q 0.71
Result:P1VERP2HAMP3ANT
Grid:P1HAMP2RUSP3LEC
Pit windows:
SAI L10 SALB L12 SBOT L12 MHAM L12 SLEC L14 M
P1 confidence waypoints:
FP2LEC30%FP3HAD30%QHAD60%
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