Race Predictions

2026 Season Accuracy↑ improving

avg race ρ0.73

14 / 24 races scored11 strong calls (ρ ≥ 0.7)

Spearman ρ: 1.0 = perfect · 0 = random · predictions locked pre-session

Called 11 of 14 races with strong accuracy (ρ ≥ 0.7) — all predictions locked before the session · 10 races remaining.

Credibility Scoreboard

2026 Season · Prediction Accuracy

Recent accuracy

81%

Model driftModerate driftscore 0.27

Events scored5this season

Correct5/5this season

Accuracy trend

Last 5 Events

↑ Improvingproj. ρ 0.98

Event	Quali ρ	Race ρ	SQ ρ	SR ρ	Pit hit
BEL	0.887	0.794			90%*
HUN	0.927	0.939			95%*
NED	0.851	0.879	0.827	0.871	74%*
ITA	0.922	0.795			100%*
ESP2	0.887	0.751			63%*

ρ = Spearman rank correlation · 1.0 perfect · trend = last minus first in window · * SC-adjusted (hover for strict ±2)

Running Score This Season81%composite of 3 GP metrics

Race Order Accuracy0.73114 events scoredSpearman ρ · predicted vs actual finishing order · penalty-adjusted ρ: 0.754 (1 penalty events)

Quali Prediction0.87113 events scoredRank correlation · predicted vs actual qualifying order

Pit Window0.83314 events scoredSC-adjusted hit rate (strict ±2: 11%)

SC Probability40%correct direction · 5 events · pre-race static forecast, binary scored

Sprint Weekend AccuracySprintscored separately · not in GP composite

Sprint Race Order0.8145 events scoredSpearman ρ · predicted vs actual sprint race order

Sprint Qualifying0.8864 events scoredRank correlation · predicted vs actual SQ order

Spearman ρ: 1.0 = perfect order · 0 = random · −1 = inverted | All predictions locked pre-session, scored post-race.

Per-Event History

#	Event	Date	Quali ρ	Race ρ	SQ ρ	SR ρ	Pit hit	Divergences
1	AUSAustralian Grand Prix	2026-03-08	0.747	0.556			74%*	—
2	CHNChinese Grand Prix	2026-03-15	—	0.879	—	0.865	88%*	—
3	JPNJapanese Grand Prix	2026-03-29	0.929	0.289			100%*	—
4	MIAMiami Grand Prix	2026-05-03	0.878	0.880 0.694 adj	0.906	0.722	78%*	—
5	CANCanadian Grand Prix	2026-05-24	0.844	0.736	0.891	0.652	94%*	—
6	MONMonaco Grand Prix	2026-06-07	0.678	0.707			94%*	—
7	ESPBarcelona Grand Prix	2026-06-14	0.918	0.815			16%*	—
8	AUTAustrian Grand Prix	2026-06-28	0.945	0.785 0.846 adj			100%*	—
9	GBRBritish Grand Prix	2026-07-05	0.913	0.432	0.921	0.958	100%*	—
10	BELBelgian Grand Prix	2026-07-19	0.887	0.794			90%*	—
11	HUNHungarian Grand Prix	2026-07-26	0.927	0.939			95%*	—
12	NEDDutch Grand Prix	2026-08-23	0.851	0.879	0.827	0.871	74%*	—
13	ITAItalian Grand Prix	2026-09-06	0.922	0.795			100%*	—
14	ESP2Spanish Grand Prix	2026-09-13	0.887	0.751 0.744 adj			63%*	—

* SC-adjusted — counts pits that fell inside a historically likely safety-car window for that circuit (hover for strict ±2 rate)

Season Highlights

Best Call

Austrian Grand PrixAUT

Quali ρ 0.945qualifying prediction

Biggest Miss

Japanese Grand PrixJPN

Race ρ 0.289race finishing order

Season Trajectoryimproving

avg ρ=0.73current ρ=0.75projected ρ=0.9814 races scored

Method Note

Race accuracy measures whether the predicted finishing order matches the actual result, using Spearman rank correlation (1.0 = perfect, 0 = random, −1 = inverted). Qualifying accuracy measures rank correlation between predicted and actual qualifying lap time order. Pit window accuracy measures whether the predicted pit lap was within ±2 laps of the actual pit lap. All predictions are locked before the session starts — no retroactive changes.

How we measure accuracy →