Championship Projection

2026

Completed Rounds15

Remaining11

Simulation1,000 iterations

Updated 4d ago

DRIVER STANDINGS — PROJECTED FINAL POINTS

#	Driver	Team	Current Pts	p10 · p50 · p90	Title%
1	ANT	Mercedes	287	398·427·459	99.6%
2	RUS	Mercedes	209	284·316·350	0.4%
3	HAM	Ferrari	194	311·330·348	0.0%
4	LEC	Ferrari	176	254·283·312	0.0%
5	NOR	McLaren	159	228·261·292	0.0%
6	PIA	McLaren	110	173·202·231	0.0%
7	VER	Red Bull	116	158·188·221	0.0%
8	HAD	Red Bull	75	118·155·202	0.0%
9	GAS	Alpine	49	91·128·177	0.0%
10	LAW	RB F1 Team	56	83·102·123	0.0%
11	BEA	Haas	33	60·101·146	0.0%
12	LIN	RB F1 Team	28	42·54·70	0.0%
13	BOR	Audi	12	17·26·37	0.0%
14	COL	Alpine	13	16·23·35	0.0%
15	HUL	Audi	6	9·20·35	0.0%
16	TSU		0	9·19·31	0.0%
17	SAI	Williams	8	8·14·24	0.0%
18	OCO	Haas	4	4·9·19	0.0%
19	ALB	Williams	5	5·7·17	0.0%
20	ALO	Aston Martin	2	2·2·5	0.0%
21	PER	Cadillac	1	1·1·3	0.0%
22	BOT	Cadillac	0	0·0·0	0.0%
23	STR	Aston Martin	0	0·0·0	0.0%

Sorted by title probability · 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations per run

Points Gap to Leader

CONSTRUCTOR STANDINGS — PROJECTED FINAL POINTS

#	Constructor	Current Pts	p10 · p50 · p90	Title%
1	Mercedes	496	700·743·787	99.7%
2	Ferrari	370	578·612·648	0.3%
3	McLaren	269	423·461·507	0.0%
4	Red Bull	191	295·346·397	0.0%
5	RB F1 Team	84	134·157·182	0.0%
6	Alpine	62	115·154·201	0.0%
7	Haas	37	72·111·155	0.0%
8	Audi	18	33·46·65	0.0%
9	Williams	13	16·24·37	0.0%
10	Aston Martin	2	2·2·5	0.0%
11	Cadillac	1	1·1·3	0.0%

Sorted by title probability · constructor points = sum of both drivers

Title probability = fraction of 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations where a driver or constructor holds maximum points at season end · p10 / p50 / p90 = 10th, 50th, 90th percentile of final points across simulations · Remaining rounds draw from each driver's pace distribution established in completed rounds