Championship Projection
2026| # | Driver | Current Pts | p10 · p50 · p90 | Title% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ANT | 380 | 457·484·511 | 100.0% |
| 2 | HAM | 255 | 314·340·365 | 0.0% |
| 3 | RUS | 244 | 282·309·341 | 0.0% |
| 4 | VER | 233 | 272·302·332 | 0.0% |
| 5 | LEC | 196 | 230·257·285 | 0.0% |
| 6 | NOR | 180 | 210·237·268 | 0.0% |
| 7 | PIA | 106 | 131·153·177 | 0.0% |
| 8 | HAD | 103 | 124·147·173 | 0.0% |
| 9 | LAW | 88 | 106·122·144 | 0.0% |
| 10 | GAS | 73 | 85·101·124 | 0.0% |
| 11 | LIN | 41 | 50·61·77 | 0.0% |
| 12 | HUL | 31 | 35·49·67 | 0.0% |
| 13 | BEA | 35 | 35·47·65 | 0.0% |
| 14 | COL | 31 | 33·43·58 | 0.0% |
| 15 | BOR | 24 | 26·37·54 | 0.0% |
| 16 | SAI | 17 | 17·23·35 | 0.0% |
| 17 | OCO | 6 | 6·7·16 | 0.0% |
| 18 | ALO | 6 | 6·6·10 | 0.0% |
| 19 | TSU | 1 | 2·6·13 | 0.0% |
| 20 | ALB | 5 | 5·5·13 | 0.0% |
| 21 | PER | 1 | 1·1·3 | 0.0% |
| 22 | BOT | 0 | 0·0·0 | 0.0% |
| 23 | STR | 0 | 0·0·0 | 0.0% |
Sorted by title probability · 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations per run
Calculating title scenarios…
Set finishing positions for the remaining 7 races and watch the title odds move. Everything else is sampled from each driver's season-long pace.
| Round | ANT | HAM | RUS | VER | LEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race +1 | |||||
| Race +2 | |||||
| Race +3 | |||||
| Race +4 | |||||
| Race +5 | |||||
| Race +6 | |||||
| Race +7 |
| Driver | Simulated % | Δ vs baseline | p10 · mean · p90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANT | 100.0% | — | 457·482·506 |
| HAM | 0.0% | — | 317·340·365 |
| RUS | 0.0% | — | 288·312·338 |
| VER | 0.0% | — | 281·305·331 |
| LEC | 0.0% | — | 237·260·285 |
| NOR | 0.0% | — | 218·242·267 |
| PIA | 0.0% | — | 137·157·177 |
| HAD | 0.0% | — | 134·153·173 |
| LAW | 0.0% | — | 110·126·142 |
| GAS | 0.0% | — | 92·107·123 |
| LIN | 0.0% | — | 55·65·76 |
| HUL | 0.0% | — | 43·55·67 |
| BEA | 0.0% | — | 44·54·66 |
| COL | 0.0% | — | 40·48·58 |
| BOR | 0.0% | — | 33·43·54 |
| SAI | 0.0% | — | 22·28·34 |
| OCO | 0.0% | — | 8·11·14 |
| TSU | 0.0% | — | 4·8·13 |
| ALB | 0.0% | — | 6·8·11 |
| ALO | 0.0% | — | 7·8·9 |
| PER | 0.0% | — | 1·2·3 |
| STR | 0.0% | — | 0·1·2 |
| BOT | 0.0% | — | 0·1·2 |
2 000 browser-side iterations with a fixed seed — the same scenario always yields the same answer · Per-round pace sampled from each driver's p10/p90 band in the server projection · Sprint rounds are sampled, not overridable, because the projection reports only how many remain · Race win = 25 pts · Sprint win = 8 pts
Points Gap to Leader
| # | Constructor | Current Pts | p10 · p50 · p90 | Title% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercedes | 624 | 756·795·830 | 100.0% |
| 2 | Ferrari | 451 | 562·597·633 | 0.0% |
| 3 | Red Bull | 336 | 413·451·485 | 0.0% |
| 4 | McLaren | 286 | 358·390·428 | 0.0% |
| 5 | RB F1 Team | 129 | 165·185·210 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Alpine | 104 | 126·146·172 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Audi | 55 | 70·88·109 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Haas | 41 | 43·57·75 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Williams | 22 | 22·30·43 | 0.0% |
| 10 | Aston Martin | 6 | 6·6·10 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Cadillac | 1 | 1·1·3 | 0.0% |
Sorted by title probability · constructor points = sum of both drivers
Title probability = fraction of 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations where a driver or constructor holds maximum points at season end · p10 / p50 / p90 = 10th, 50th, 90th percentile of final points across simulations · Remaining rounds draw from each driver's pace distribution established in completed rounds