Australian Grand Prix 2026
Sprint WeekendRound 1
Race Spearman ρ0.556Moderate accuracy
POST-RACE SCORE
0.556Fair
SC probability predicted: 55%
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P8 | -7 |
| P2 | ANT | P7 | -5 |
| P3 | LEC | P1 | +2 |
| P4 | HAM | P9 | -5 |
| P5 | NOR | P6 | -1 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 4 drivers shifted
SAI P4→P21 (+17)STR P19→P22 (+3)LAW P9→P8 (-1)LIN P8→P9 (+1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | HAD | — | — |
| P3 | ANT | P2 | -1 |
| P4 | LEC | P3 | -1 |
| P5 | PIA | — | — |
| P6 | HAM | P4 | -2 |
| P7 | NOR | P5 | -2 |
| P8 | LAW | — | — |
| P9 | VER | P6 | -3 |
| P10 | LIN | P8 | -2 |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:02:10 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P8 | -7 |
| P2 | ANT | P7 | -5 |
| P3 | LEC | P1 | +2 |
| P4 | HAM | P9 | -5 |
| P5 | NOR | P6 | -1 |
| P6 | VER | P2 | +4 |
| P7 | BEA | — | — |
| P8 | LIN | — | — |
| P9 | BOR | — | — |
| P10 | GAS | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session
Sprint Weekend Predictions
Sprint WeekendSprint Qualifying Spearman ρ—
Sprint results not yet available.
Sprint Race Spearman ρ—
Sprint results not yet available.
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology