Australian Grand Prix 2026
Round 1
Race Spearman ρ0.806Strong accuracy
Published atTue, 06 Oct 2026 15:50:05 GMT· from Q
Why this prediction?
Predicted P1: frontrow start overcomes pace deficit — track position key
Pace Score83.15s
Grid PositionP1
Tyre DeltaSOFT
SC Probability55%elevated — factored into call
Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used
POST-RACE SCORE
0.806Good
SC probability predicted: 55%·SC deployed — called it ✓
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | ANT | P2 | 0 |
| P3 | LEC | P3 | 0 |
| P4 | HAM | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | NOR | P6 | -1 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 4 drivers shiftedρ 0.632
SAI P4→P21 (+17)STR P19→P22 (+3)LAW P9→P8 (-1)LIN P8→P9 (+1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | HAD | — | — |
| P3 | ANT | P2 | -1 |
| P4 | LEC | P3 | -1 |
| P5 | PIA | — | — |
| P6 | HAM | P4 | -2 |
| P7 | NOR | P5 | -2 |
| P8 | LAW | — | — |
| P9 | VER | P6 | -3 |
| P10 | LIN | P8 | -2 |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:02:10 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | ANT | P2 | 0 |
| P3 | LEC | P3 | 0 |
| P4 | HAM | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | NOR | P6 | -1 |
| P6 | VER | — | — |
| P7 | BEA | — | — |
| P8 | LIN | P10 | -2 |
| P9 | BOR | — | — |
| P10 | GAS | P8 | +2 |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology