Austrian Grand Prix 2026
Round 8
Race Spearman ρ0.926Strong accuracy
Published atSun, 02 Aug 2026 22:41:16 GMT· from Q
Why this prediction?
Predicted P1: leading pace score backed by frontrow start
Pace Score70.00s
Grid PositionP1
Tyre DeltaMEDIUM
SC Probability40%elevated — factored into call
Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used
POST-RACE SCORE
0.926Good
SC probability predicted: 40%·SC deployed — missed it ✗
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | VER | P4 | -2 |
| P3 | ANT | P2 | +1 |
| P4 | PIA | P9 | -5 |
| P5 | NOR | P7 | -2 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 18 drivers shiftedρ 0.826
RUS P8→P1 (-7)LEC P7→P2 (-5)OCO P20→P15 (-5)NOR P2→P6 (+4)COL P13→P16 (+3)ANT P1→P4 (+3)ALB P15→P18 (+3)BEA P10→P13 (+3)HAD P5→P8 (+3)LAW P11→P9 (-2)BOR P14→P12 (-2)HUL P16→P14 (-2)GAS P9→P11 (+2)LIN P12→P10 (-2)PIA P6→P7 (+1)PER P18→P19 (+1)VER P4→P5 (+1)BOT P19→P20 (+1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | HAM | P7 | +5 |
| P3 | ANT | P3 | 0 |
| P4 | HAD | P6 | +2 |
| P5 | LEC | P10 | +5 |
| P6 | LIN | P9 | +3 |
| P7 | VER | P2 | -5 |
| P8 | LAW | P8 | 0 |
| P9 | NOR | P5 | -4 |
| P10 | HUL | — | — |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:02:24 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | VER | P4 | -2 |
| P3 | ANT | P2 | +1 |
| P4 | PIA | P9 | -5 |
| P5 | NOR | P7 | -2 |
| P6 | HAD | P5 | +1 |
| P7 | HAM | P3 | +4 |
| P8 | LAW | P8 | 0 |
| P9 | LIN | P10 | -1 |
| P10 | LEC | P6 | +4 |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology