Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2026
Round 15
Race Spearman ρ0.586Moderate accuracy
Published atSat, 26 Sep 2026 03:05:24 GMT· from Q
Why this prediction?
Predicted P1: frontrow start overcomes pace deficit — track position key
Pace Score106.91s
Grid PositionP1
Tyre DeltaMEDIUM
SC Probability72%elevated — factored into call
Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used
POST-RACE SCORE
0.586Fair
penalty-adj ρ 0.591· 1 driver excluded
SC probability predicted: 72%·SC deployed — called it ✓
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | VER | P7 | -5 |
| P3 | HAD | P6 | -3 |
| P4 | LEC | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | ANT | P9 | -4 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 9 drivers shiftedρ 0.550
SAI P9→P14 (+5)BOT P22→P19 (-3)ALO P19→P21 (+2)LAW P12→P11 (-1)OCO P14→P13 (-1)BEA P11→P10 (-1)ALB P13→P12 (-1)COL P10→P9 (-1)STR P21→P22 (+1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | PIA | — | — |
| P3 | LEC | P4 | +1 |
| P4 | HAD | P3 | -1 |
| P5 | HAM | P6 | +1 |
| P6 | VER | P2 | -4 |
| P7 | GAS | — | — |
| P8 | BEA | P9 | +1 |
| P9 | NOR | — | — |
| P10 | COL | — | — |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Sat, 26 Sep 2026 10:55:01 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | VER | P7 | -5 |
| P3 | HAD | P6 | -3 |
| P4 | LEC | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | ANT | P9 | -4 |
| P6 | HAM | P2 | +4 |
| P7 | LIN | — | — |
| P8 | OCO | — | — |
| P9 | BEA | — | — |
| P10 | SAIpen | P16P13 | -6 |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session · pen = grid-adjusted position shown (strikethrough = locked pre-penalty prediction)
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology