Belgian Grand Prix 2026
Round 10
Race Spearman ρ0.917Strong accuracy
Published atSat, 18 Jul 2026 14:10:59 GMT· from Q
Why this prediction?
Predicted P1: grid advantage leads the call — pace gap limits upside
Pace Score159.16s
Grid PositionP1
Tyre DeltaMEDIUM
SC Probability45%elevated — factored into call
Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used
POST-RACE SCORE
0.917Good
penalty-adj ρ 0.962· 3 drivers excluded
SC probability predicted: 45%·SC deployed — missed it ✗
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | LEC | P5 | -3 |
| P3 | VER | P4 | -1 |
| P4 | HAM | P6 | -2 |
| P5 | PIA | P7 | -2 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 15 drivers shiftedρ 0.838
HAD P3→P21 (+18)NOR P1→P13 (+12)SAI P12→P19 (+7)COL P17→P11 (-6)HAM P10→P5 (-5)LIN P4→P7 (+3)HUL P15→P12 (-3)BOT P20→P17 (-3)GAS P13→P10 (-3)LEC P6→P4 (-2)OCO P18→P16 (-2)PIA P8→P6 (-2)STR P22→P20 (-2)ALB P16→P15 (-1)PER P19→P18 (-1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | VER | P3 | +2 |
| P2 | LEC | P2 | 0 |
| P3 | HAM | P4 | +1 |
| P4 | PIA | P5 | +1 |
| P5 | NOR | P7 | +2 |
| P6 | LIN | P9 | +3 |
| P7 | LAW | — | — |
| P8 | GAS | — | — |
| P9 | COL | P10 | +1 |
| P10 | HUL | — | — |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:02:28 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | LEC | P5 | -3 |
| P3 | VER | P4 | -1 |
| P4 | HAM | P6 | -2 |
| P5 | PIA | P7 | -2 |
| P6 | HADpen | P15P11 | -9 |
| P7 | NORpen | P5P3 | +2 |
| P8 | BOR | P9 | -1 |
| P9 | LIN | P8 | +1 |
| P10 | COL | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session · pen = grid-adjusted position shown (strikethrough = locked pre-penalty prediction)
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology