British Grand Prix 2026
Sprint WeekendRound 9
Race Spearman ρ0.432Moderate accuracy
Sprint Race ρ0.958
Published atSat, 04 Jul 2026 15:10:45 GMT· from Q
POST-RACE SCORE
0.432Fair
SC probability predicted: 50%
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | LEC | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | RUS | — | — |
| P3 | HAM | P3 | 0 |
| P4 | NOR | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | HAD | P7 | -2 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 21 drivers shifted
RUS P22→P4 (-18)BOR P21→P11 (-10)COL P12→P19 (+7)LAW P17→P10 (-7)ALB P9→P16 (+7)LIN P4→P9 (+5)PER P16→P20 (+4)SAI P18→P14 (-4)GAS P11→P15 (+4)OCO P14→P17 (+3)BEA P10→P13 (+3)BOT P15→P18 (+3)STR P19→P22 (+3)ANT P3→P1 (-2)HAD P7→P5 (-2)HAM P2→P3 (+1)HUL P13→P12 (-1)LEC P1→P2 (+1)NOR P5→P6 (+1)ALO P20→P21 (+1)VER P6→P7 (+1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | — | — |
| P2 | LEC | P1 | -1 |
| P3 | RUS | P2 | -1 |
| P4 | HAD | P5 | +1 |
| P5 | HAM | P3 | -2 |
| P6 | VER | — | — |
| P7 | NOR | P4 | -3 |
| P8 | LIN | P7 | -1 |
| P9 | BOT | — | — |
| P10 | PIA | — | — |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:02:26 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | LEC | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | RUS | — | — |
| P3 | HAM | P3 | 0 |
| P4 | NOR | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | HAD | P7 | -2 |
| P6 | LAW | — | — |
| P7 | LIN | P4 | +3 |
| P8 | BOR | — | — |
| P9 | COL | — | — |
| P10 | GAS | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session
Sprint Weekend Predictions
Sprint WeekendSprint Qualifying Spearman ρ0.921
Predicted vs Actual — Sprint Qualifying Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | HAM | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | ANT | P2 | 0 |
| P3 | VER | P6 | -3 |
| P4 | LEC | P3 | +1 |
| P5 | RUS | P4 | +1 |
| P6 | NOR | P7 | -1 |
| P7 | PIA | P5 | +2 |
| P8 | HAD | P8 | 0 |
| P9 | LAW | P10 | -1 |
| P10 | LIN | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · all predictions locked pre-session
Sprint Race Spearman ρ0.958
Predicted vs Actual — Sprint Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | HAM | P3 | -1 |
| P3 | NOR | P6 | -3 |
| P4 | RUS | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | LEC | P4 | +1 |
| P6 | VER | P2 | +4 |
| P7 | PIA | P8 | -1 |
| P8 | LAW | P9 | -1 |
| P9 | HAD | P7 | +2 |
| P10 | LIN | P10 | 0 |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · all predictions locked pre-session
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology