British Grand Prix 2026

Sprint Weekend

Round 9

Race Spearman ρ0.642Moderate accuracy

Sprint Race ρ0.955

Published atSat, 04 Jul 2026 15:10:45 GMT· from Q

Why this prediction?

Predicted P1: leading pace score backed by frontrow start

Pace Score100.66s

Grid PositionP1

SC Probability50%elevated — factored into call

Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used

POST-RACE SCORE

0.642Fair

penalty-adj ρ 0.651· 1 driver excluded

SC probability predicted: 50%·SC deployed — called it ✓

Actual	Driver	Predicted	Δ
P1	LEC	P3	-2
P2	RUS	P2	0
P3	HAM	P5	-2
P4	NOR	P7	-3
P5	HAD	P6	-1

Top 5 · Full breakdown below

Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 21 drivers shiftedρ 0.661

RUS P22→P4 (-18)BOR P21→P11 (-10)COL P12→P19 (+7)LAW P17→P10 (-7)ALB P9→P16 (+7)LIN P4→P9 (+5)PER P16→P20 (+4)SAI P18→P14 (-4)GAS P11→P15 (+4)OCO P14→P17 (+3)BEA P10→P13 (+3)BOT P15→P18 (+3)STR P19→P22 (+3)ANT P3→P1 (-2)HAD P7→P5 (-2)HAM P2→P3 (+1)HUL P13→P12 (-1)LEC P1→P2 (+1)NOR P5→P6 (+1)ALO P20→P21 (+1)VER P6→P7 (+1)

Adj P	Driver	Actual	Δ
P1	ANT	—	—
P2	LEC	P1	-1
P3	RUS	P2	-1
P4	HAD	P5	+1
P5	HAM	P3	-2
P6	VER	—	—
P7	NOR	P4	-3
P8	LIN	P7	-1
P9	BOT	—	—
P10	PIA	—	—

Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:02:26 GMT

Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order

Actual	Driver	Predicted	Δ
P1	LEC	P3	-2
P2	RUS	P2	0
P3	HAM	P5	-2
P4	NOR	P7	-3
P5	HAD	P6	-1
P6	LAW	—	—
P7	LIN	P9	-2
P8	BOR	—	—
P9	COL	—	—
P10	GASpen	P16P15	-6

Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session · pen = grid-adjusted position shown (strikethrough = locked pre-penalty prediction)

Sprint Weekend Predictions

Sprint Weekend

Sprint Qualifying Spearman ρ0.921

Predicted vs Actual — Sprint Qualifying Order

Actual	Driver	Predicted	Δ
P1	HAM	P1	0
P2	ANT	P2	0
P3	VER	P6	-3
P4	LEC	P3	+1
P5	RUS	P4	+1
P6	NOR	P7	-1
P7	PIA	P5	+2
P8	HAD	P8	0
P9	LAW	P10	-1
P10	LIN	—	—

Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · all predictions locked pre-session

Sprint Race Spearman ρ0.955

Predicted vs Actual — Sprint Race Finishing Order

Actual	Driver	Predicted	Δ
P1	ANT	P1	0
P2	HAM	P3	-1
P3	NOR	P6	-3
P4	RUS	P5	-1
P5	LEC	P4	+1
P6	VER	P2	+4
P7	PIA	P8	-1
P8	LAW	P9	-1
P9	HAD	P7	+2
P10	LIN	P10	0

Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · all predictions locked pre-session

Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology

Adj P	Driver	Actual	Δ
P1	ANT	—	—
P2	LEC	P1	-1
P3	RUS	P2	-1
P4	HAD	P5	+1
P5	HAM	P3	-2
P6	VER	—	—
P7	NOR	P4	-3
P8	LIN	P7	-1
P9	BOT	—	—
P10	PIA	—	—

Actual	Driver	Predicted	Δ
P1	HAM	P1	0
P2	ANT	P2	0
P3	VER	P6	-3
P4	LEC	P3	+1
P5	RUS	P4	+1
P6	NOR	P7	-1
P7	PIA	P5	+2
P8	HAD	P8	0
P9	LAW	P10	-1
P10	LIN	—	—

Actual	Driver	Predicted	Δ
P1	ANT	P1	0
P2	HAM	P3	-1
P3	NOR	P6	-3
P4	RUS	P5	-1
P5	LEC	P4	+1
P6	VER	P2	+4
P7	PIA	P8	-1
P8	LAW	P9	-1
P9	HAD	P7	+2
P10	LIN	P10	0

Adj P	Driver	Actual	Δ
P1	ANT	—	—
P2	LEC	P1	-1
P3	RUS	P2	-1
P4	HAD	P5	+1
P5	HAM	P3	-2
P6	VER	—	—
P7	NOR	P4	-3
P8	LIN	P7	-1
P9	BOT	—	—
P10	PIA	—	—

Actual	Driver	Predicted	Δ
P1	HAM	P1	0
P2	ANT	P2	0
P3	VER	P6	-3
P4	LEC	P3	+1
P5	RUS	P4	+1
P6	NOR	P7	-1
P7	PIA	P5	+2
P8	HAD	P8	0
P9	LAW	P10	-1
P10	LIN	—	—

Actual	Driver	Predicted	Δ
P1	ANT	P1	0
P2	HAM	P3	-1
P3	NOR	P6	-3
P4	RUS	P5	-1
P5	LEC	P4	+1
P6	VER	P2	+4
P7	PIA	P8	-1
P8	LAW	P9	-1
P9	HAD	P7	+2
P10	LIN	P10	0

Adj P	Driver	Actual	Δ
P1	ANT	—	—
P2	LEC	P1	-1
P3	RUS	P2	-1
P4	HAD	P5	+1
P5	HAM	P3	-2
P6	VER	—	—
P7	NOR	P4	-3
P8	LIN	P7	-1
P9	BOT	—	—
P10	PIA	—	—

Actual	Driver	Predicted	Δ
P1	HAM	P1	0
P2	ANT	P2	0
P3	VER	P6	-3
P4	LEC	P3	+1
P5	RUS	P4	+1
P6	NOR	P7	-1
P7	PIA	P5	+2
P8	HAD	P8	0
P9	LAW	P10	-1
P10	LIN	—	—

Actual	Driver	Predicted	Δ
P1	ANT	P1	0
P2	HAM	P3	-1
P3	NOR	P6	-3
P4	RUS	P5	-1
P5	LEC	P4	+1
P6	VER	P2	+4
P7	PIA	P8	-1
P8	LAW	P9	-1
P9	HAD	P7	+2
P10	LIN	P10	0