Canadian Grand Prix 2026
Sprint WeekendRound 5
Race Spearman ρ0.679Moderate accuracy
Sprint Race ρ0.614
Published atSun, 02 Aug 2026 20:58:57 GMT· from Q
Why this prediction?
Predicted P1: frontrow start overcomes pace deficit — track position key
Pace Score84.57s
Grid PositionP1
SC Probability65%elevated — factored into call
Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used
POST-RACE SCORE
0.679Fair
SC probability predicted: 65%·SC deployed — called it ✓
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P2 | -1 |
| P2 | HAM | P6 | -4 |
| P3 | VER | P4 | -1 |
| P4 | LEC | P9 | -5 |
| P5 | HAD | P8 | -3 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P2 | -1 |
| P2 | HAM | P6 | -4 |
| P3 | VER | P4 | -1 |
| P4 | LEC | P9 | -5 |
| P5 | HAD | P8 | -3 |
| P6 | COL | P10 | -4 |
| P7 | LAW | P7 | 0 |
| P8 | GAS | — | — |
| P9 | SAI | — | — |
| P10 | BEA | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session
Sprint Weekend Predictions
Sprint WeekendSprint Qualifying Spearman ρ0.891
Predicted vs Actual — Sprint Qualifying Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P2 | -1 |
| P2 | ANT | P1 | +1 |
| P3 | NOR | P6 | -3 |
| P4 | PIA | P7 | -3 |
| P5 | HAM | P3 | +2 |
| P6 | LEC | P4 | +2 |
| P7 | VER | P5 | +2 |
| P8 | HAD | — | — |
| P9 | LIN | P8 | +1 |
| P10 | SAI | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · all predictions locked pre-session
Sprint Race Spearman ρ0.614
Predicted vs Actual — Sprint Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P7 | -6 |
| P2 | NOR | P9 | -7 |
| P3 | ANT | P3 | 0 |
| P4 | PIA | P1 | +3 |
| P5 | LEC | P10 | -5 |
| P6 | HAM | P5 | +1 |
| P7 | VER | P2 | +5 |
| P8 | LIN | — | — |
| P9 | COL | — | — |
| P10 | SAI | P6 | +4 |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · all predictions locked pre-session
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology