Dutch Grand Prix 2026
Sprint WeekendRound 12
Race Spearman ρ0.882Strong accuracy
Sprint Race ρ0.871
Published atSat, 22 Aug 2026 15:23:15 GMT· from Q
Why this prediction?
Predicted P1: leading pace score backed by frontrow start
Pace Score83.36s
Grid PositionP1
SC Probability35%low — minimal race disturbance expected
Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used
POST-RACE SCORE
0.882Good
SC probability predicted: 35%·SC deployed — missed it ✗
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | NOR | P2 | -1 |
| P2 | ANT | P3 | -1 |
| P3 | RUS | P1 | +2 |
| P4 | HAM | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | LEC | P6 | -1 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | NOR | P2 | -1 |
| P2 | ANT | P3 | -1 |
| P3 | RUS | P1 | +2 |
| P4 | HAM | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | LEC | P6 | -1 |
| P6 | PIA | P4 | +2 |
| P7 | LAW | P8 | -1 |
| P8 | HUL | — | — |
| P9 | ALO | — | — |
| P10 | GAS | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session
Sprint Weekend Predictions
Sprint WeekendSprint Qualifying Spearman ρ0.827
Predicted vs Actual — Sprint Qualifying Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | NOR | P2 | -1 |
| P2 | LEC | P4 | -2 |
| P3 | PIA | P5 | -2 |
| P4 | ANT | P1 | +3 |
| P5 | VER | P10 | -5 |
| P6 | HAM | P3 | +3 |
| P7 | GAS | P7 | 0 |
| P8 | BOR | P8 | 0 |
| P9 | LIN | P9 | 0 |
| P10 | LAW | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · all predictions locked pre-session
Sprint Race Spearman ρ0.871
Predicted vs Actual — Sprint Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | — | — |
| P2 | LEC | P1 | +1 |
| P3 | NOR | P3 | 0 |
| P4 | ANT | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | PIA | P6 | -1 |
| P6 | VER | P7 | -1 |
| P7 | HAM | P2 | +5 |
| P8 | GAS | P8 | 0 |
| P9 | BOR | P10 | -1 |
| P10 | LIN | P9 | +1 |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · all predictions locked pre-session
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology