Hungarian Grand Prix 2026
Round 11
Race Spearman ρ0.849Strong accuracy
Published atSat, 25 Jul 2026 14:11:17 GMT· from Q
Why this prediction?
Predicted P1: leading pace score backed by frontrow start
Pace Score82.90s
Grid PositionP2
Tyre DeltaMEDIUM
SC Probability30%low — minimal race disturbance expected
Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used
POST-RACE SCORE
0.849Good
penalty-adj ρ 0.831· 2 drivers excluded
SC probability predicted: 30%·SC deployed — missed it ✗
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | NOR | P4 | -3 |
| P2 | VER | P7 | -5 |
| P3 | ANTpen | P9P2 | -6 |
| P4 | LEC | P3 | +1 |
| P5 | HAMpen | P4P1 | +1 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 21 drivers shiftedρ 0.902
COL P22→P13 (-9)LEC P6→P2 (-4)ANT P3→P7 (+4)PIA P7→P3 (-4)HAD P5→P8 (+3)ALO P13→P16 (+3)GAS P15→P12 (-3)RUS P8→P6 (-2)STR P18→P20 (+2)ALB P17→P19 (+2)BOR P12→P14 (+2)VER P2→P4 (+2)LAW P9→P11 (+2)BEA P16→P17 (+1)LIN P10→P9 (-1)HUL P11→P10 (-1)HAM P4→P5 (+1)OCO P14→P15 (+1)SAI P19→P18 (-1)BOT P20→P21 (+1)PER P21→P22 (+1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | NOR | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | PIA | — | — |
| P3 | LEC | P4 | +1 |
| P4 | HAM | P5 | +1 |
| P5 | RUS | P7 | +2 |
| P6 | VER | P2 | -4 |
| P7 | HAD | P6 | -1 |
| P8 | HUL | P9 | +1 |
| P9 | ANT | P3 | -6 |
| P10 | LIN | P10 | 0 |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:02:30 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | NOR | P4 | -3 |
| P2 | VER | P7 | -5 |
| P3 | ANTpen | P9P2 | -6 |
| P4 | LEC | P3 | +1 |
| P5 | HAMpen | P4P1 | +1 |
| P6 | HAD | — | — |
| P7 | RUS | P9 | -2 |
| P8 | LAW | P8 | 0 |
| P9 | HUL | P10 | -1 |
| P10 | LIN | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session · pen = grid-adjusted position shown (strikethrough = locked pre-penalty prediction)
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology