Italian Grand Prix 2026
Sprint WeekendRound 13
Race Spearman ρ0.795Strong accuracy
Published atSun, 06 Sep 2026 09:02:48 GMT· from Q
POST-RACE SCORE
0.795Good
SC probability predicted: 45%
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P5 | -4 |
| P2 | RUS | P1 | +1 |
| P3 | VER | P4 | -1 |
| P4 | NOR | P9 | -5 |
| P5 | PIA | P3 | +2 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 18 drivers shifted
ANT P7→P19 (+12)LAW P14→P22 (+8)STR P22→P18 (-4)BOT P19→P16 (-3)PER P20→P17 (-3)PIA P3→P6 (+3)TSU P17→P15 (-2)SAI P15→P13 (-2)ALB P18→P20 (+2)OCO P16→P14 (-2)LEC P4→P3 (-1)HAM P5→P4 (-1)COL P8→P7 (-1)VER P6→P5 (-1)LIN P10→P9 (-1)HUL P13→P12 (-1)NOR P9→P8 (-1)BEA P12→P11 (-1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P2 | +1 |
| P2 | GAS | P7 | +5 |
| P3 | VER | P3 | 0 |
| P4 | HAM | P6 | +2 |
| P5 | LEC | — | — |
| P6 | PIA | P5 | -1 |
| P7 | LIN | P8 | +1 |
| P8 | LAW | — | — |
| P9 | NOR | P4 | -5 |
| P10 | COL | P9 | -1 |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Sun, 06 Sep 2026 12:55:01 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P5 | -4 |
| P2 | RUS | P1 | +1 |
| P3 | VER | P4 | -1 |
| P4 | NOR | P9 | -5 |
| P5 | PIA | P3 | +2 |
| P6 | HAM | P6 | 0 |
| P7 | GAS | P2 | +5 |
| P8 | LIN | P8 | 0 |
| P9 | COL | P10 | -1 |
| P10 | TSU | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session
Sprint Weekend Predictions
Sprint WeekendSprint Qualifying Spearman ρ—
Sprint results not yet available.
Sprint Race Spearman ρ—
Sprint results not yet available.
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology