Mexico City Grand Prix 2026
Round 19
Race Spearman ρ0.719Strong accuracy
Published atSat, 31 Oct 2026 21:11:16 GMT· from Q
Race PropsLockedScored
SC Likelihood
35%
Locked 1 Nov
Actual: NO SCCORRECT
Points Finishers
VER HAM ANT LIN LAW NOR GAS HAD LEC RUS
Locked 1 Nov
Actual: 0/10 correct0/10
DNF Count
2
Locked 1 Nov
Actual: 0+2
Fastest Lap
VER
Locked 1 Nov
Actual: —WRONG
Why this prediction?
Predicted P1: frontrow start overcomes pace deficit — track position key
Pace Score82.08s
Grid PositionP4
Tyre DeltaSOFT
SC Probability35%low — minimal race disturbance expected
Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used
POST-RACE SCORE
0.719Good
penalty-adj ρ 0.727· 1 driver excluded
SC probability predicted: 35%·SC deployed — missed it ✗
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | VER | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | HAM | P2 | 0 |
| P3 | ANT | P3 | 0 |
| P4 | LEC | P9 | -5 |
| P5 | NOR | P6 | -1 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 4 drivers shiftedρ 0.773
LAW P8→P22 (+14)ANT P5→P4 (-1)VER P4→P5 (+1)HIR P19→P18 (-1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | HAM | P2 | +1 |
| P2 | ANT | P3 | +1 |
| P3 | LEC | P4 | +1 |
| P4 | VER | P1 | -3 |
| P5 | NOR | P5 | 0 |
| P6 | LIN | — | — |
| P7 | LAW | P9 | +2 |
| P8 | GAS | P10 | +2 |
| P9 | RUS | P6 | -3 |
| P10 | COL | P8 | -2 |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Sun, 01 Nov 2026 19:55:03 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | VER | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | HAM | P2 | 0 |
| P3 | ANT | P3 | 0 |
| P4 | LEC | P9 | -5 |
| P5 | NOR | P6 | -1 |
| P6 | RUS | P10 | -4 |
| P7 | PIA | — | — |
| P8 | COL | — | — |
| P9 | LAWpen | P7P5 | +2 |
| P10 | GAS | P7 | +3 |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session · pen = grid-adjusted position shown (strikethrough = locked pre-penalty prediction)
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology