Miami Grand Prix 2026
Sprint WeekendRound 4
Race Spearman ρ0.975Strong accuracy
Sprint Race ρ0.702
Published atSun, 02 Aug 2026 20:30:05 GMT· from Q
Why this prediction?
Predicted P1: leading pace score backed by frontrow start
Pace Score98.76s
Grid PositionP1
SC Probability50%elevated — factored into call
Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used
POST-RACE SCORE
0.975Good
SC probability predicted: 50%·SC deployed — called it ✓
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | NOR | P2 | 0 |
| P3 | PIA | P4 | -1 |
| P4 | RUS | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | VER | P6 | -1 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 13 drivers shiftedρ 0.888
HAD P9→P22 (+13)LAW P13→P11 (-2)OCO P16→P14 (-2)HUL P12→P10 (-2)SAI P14→P13 (-1)BEA P11→P12 (+1)LIN P17→P16 (-1)BOR P22→P21 (-1)BOT P20→P19 (-1)PER P21→P20 (-1)GAS P10→P9 (-1)ALO P18→P17 (-1)STR P19→P18 (-1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | VER | P5 | +3 |
| P3 | LEC | P8 | +5 |
| P4 | NOR | P2 | -2 |
| P5 | RUS | P4 | -1 |
| P6 | PIA | P3 | -3 |
| P7 | HAM | P6 | -1 |
| P8 | COL | P7 | -1 |
| P9 | HUL | — | — |
| P10 | HAD | — | — |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:02:16 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | NOR | P2 | 0 |
| P3 | PIA | P4 | -1 |
| P4 | RUS | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | VER | P6 | -1 |
| P6 | HAM | P7 | -1 |
| P7 | COL | P8 | -1 |
| P8 | LEC | P3 | +5 |
| P9 | SAI | P9 | 0 |
| P10 | ALB | P10 | 0 |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session
Sprint Weekend Predictions
Sprint WeekendSprint Qualifying Spearman ρ0.904
Predicted vs Actual — Sprint Qualifying Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | NOR | P9 | -8 |
| P2 | ANT | P1 | +1 |
| P3 | PIA | P3 | 0 |
| P4 | LEC | P2 | +2 |
| P5 | VER | P5 | 0 |
| P6 | RUS | P7 | -1 |
| P7 | HAM | P4 | +3 |
| P8 | COL | P10 | -2 |
| P9 | HAD | — | — |
| P10 | GAS | P6 | +4 |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · all predictions locked pre-session
Sprint Race Spearman ρ0.702
Predicted vs Actual — Sprint Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | NOR | P5 | -4 |
| P2 | PIA | — | — |
| P3 | LEC | P8 | -5 |
| P4 | RUS | P7 | -3 |
| P5 | VER | P4 | +1 |
| P6 | ANT | P1 | +5 |
| P7 | HAM | P3 | +4 |
| P8 | GAS | — | — |
| P9 | HAD | P6 | +3 |
| P10 | COL | P2 | +8 |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · all predictions locked pre-session
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology