Spanish Grand Prix 2026
Round 14
Race Spearman ρ0.913Strong accuracy
Why this prediction?
Predicted P1: grid advantage leads the call — pace gap limits upside
Pace Score105.08s
Grid PositionP1
Tyre DeltaMEDIUM
SC Probability22%low — minimal race disturbance expected
Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used
POST-RACE SCORE
0.913Good
SC probability predicted: 22%·SC deployed — missed it ✗
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | VER | P4 | -2 |
| P3 | NOR | P2 | +1 |
| P4 | LEC | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | RUS | P3 | +2 |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 4 drivers shiftedρ 0.957
SAI P17→P20 (+3)PER P19→P18 (-1)ALO P18→P17 (-1)BOT P20→P19 (-1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | NOR | P3 | +1 |
| P3 | VER | P2 | -1 |
| P4 | HAM | — | — |
| P5 | RUS | P5 | 0 |
| P6 | LEC | P4 | -2 |
| P7 | PIA | P8 | +1 |
| P8 | LIN | P9 | +1 |
| P9 | LAW | P6 | -3 |
| P10 | HUL | P10 | 0 |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Sun, 13 Sep 2026 12:55:01 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | VER | P4 | -2 |
| P3 | NOR | P2 | +1 |
| P4 | LEC | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | RUS | P3 | +2 |
| P6 | LAW | P6 | 0 |
| P7 | COL | — | — |
| P8 | PIA | P8 | 0 |
| P9 | LIN | P10 | -1 |
| P10 | HUL | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session · pen = grid-adjusted position shown (strikethrough = locked pre-penalty prediction)
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology