United States Grand Prix 2026
Round 18
Race Spearman ρ0.889Strong accuracy
Published atSat, 24 Oct 2026 21:11:48 GMT· from Q
Race PropsLockedScored
SC Likelihood
48%
Locked 25 Oct
Actual: NO SCCORRECT
Points Finishers
VER ANT HAD LEC HAM LAW LIN GAS PIA RUS
Locked 25 Oct
Actual: 0/10 correct0/10
DNF Count
2
Locked 25 Oct
Actual: 0+2
Fastest Lap
VER
Locked 25 Oct
Actual: NORWRONG
Why this prediction?
Predicted P1: frontrow start overcomes pace deficit — track position key
Pace Score102.09s
Grid PositionP2
Tyre DeltaSOFT
SC Probability48%elevated — factored into call
Signals derived from locked ML artifacts · no post-session data used
POST-RACE SCORE
0.889Good
penalty-adj ρ 0.776· 7 drivers excluded
SC probability predicted: 48%·SC deployed — missed it ✗
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P2 | -1 |
| P2 | LEC | P4 | -2 |
| P3 | VER | P1 | +2 |
| P4 | HAM | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | NOR | — | — |
Top 5 · Full breakdown below
Grid-Corrected Predictionre-run after grid penalties — 14 drivers shiftedρ 0.810
BOR P13→P21 (+8)COL P14→P20 (+6)LIN P9→P14 (+5)STR P18→P22 (+4)BEA P16→P13 (-3)SAI P19→P16 (-3)ALO P15→P12 (-3)ALB P20→P17 (-3)BOT P22→P19 (-3)PER P21→P18 (-3)OCO P17→P15 (-2)LAW P10→P9 (-1)GAS P11→P10 (-1)HUL P12→P11 (-1)
| Adj P | Driver | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | VER | P3 | +2 |
| P2 | ANT | P1 | -1 |
| P3 | HAD | P6 | +3 |
| P4 | LEC | P2 | -2 |
| P5 | HAM | P4 | -1 |
| P6 | LAW | P9 | +3 |
| P7 | ALO | — | — |
| P8 | PIA | P7 | -1 |
| P9 | GAS | P10 | +1 |
| P10 | HUL | — | — |
Locked pre-race using actual starting grid · same pace model as base prediction · scored separately from main ρ · locked Sun, 25 Oct 2026 19:55:04 GMT
Predicted vs Actual — Race Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P2 | -1 |
| P2 | LEC | P4 | -2 |
| P3 | VER | P1 | +2 |
| P4 | HAM | P5 | -1 |
| P5 | NOR | — | — |
| P6 | HAD | P3 | +3 |
| P7 | PIA | P9 | -2 |
| P8 | RUS | P10 | -2 |
| P9 | LAW | P6 | +3 |
| P10 | GAS | P8 | +2 |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session · pen = grid-adjusted position shown (strikethrough = locked pre-penalty prediction)
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology