Season Avg ρ0.581
Rounds Scored12
BY DRIVER — 15 ROUNDS SCORED
| Driver | Count↕ | Within 2▼ | Avg Δ↕ | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | 14 | 14.3% | -0.21 | NEUTRAL |
| VER | 14 | 21.4% | +2.36 | UNDER |
| BOR | 13 | 23.1% | -1.15 | OVER |
| PER | 15 | 26.7% | -3.40 | OVER |
| SAI | 15 | 26.7% | +0.53 | UNDER |
| LAW | 15 | 33.3% | -0.80 | OVER |
| RUS | 14 | 35.7% | -3.36 | OVER |
| PIA | 11 | 36.4% | +0.18 | NEUTRAL |
| BEA | 13 | 38.5% | -1.62 | OVER |
| BOT | 13 | 38.5% | -0.92 | OVER |
| STR | 13 | 46.2% | -2.08 | OVER |
| GAS | 15 | 46.7% | +5.33 | UNDER |
| LEC | 15 | 46.7% | +0.80 | UNDER |
| OCO | 15 | 46.7% | -1.47 | OVER |
| HAD | 14 | 50.0% | +7.64 | UNDER |
| ANT | 15 | 53.3% | -0.47 | NEUTRAL |
| HAM | 15 | 53.3% | -1.53 | OVER |
| HUL | 13 | 53.8% | +3.23 | UNDER |
| COL | 14 | 57.1% | -0.14 | NEUTRAL |
| ALO | 13 | 61.5% | -2.15 | OVER |
| NOR | 13 | 76.9% | +2.23 | UNDER |
| ALB | 11 | 81.8% | +0.73 | UNDER |
| TSU | 1 | 100.0% | -1.00 | OVER |
over = model over-predicted position (finished better than model expected) · under = model under-predicted · Avg Δ: positive means model underestimated finish position
ML ρ: Spearman rank correlation between model-predicted and actual race finishing order · Champ ρ: how a model predicting current championship standings order would score (Phase 92 baseline) · Circuit ρ: how a model using historical circuit results would score (circuit prior baseline) · Grid ρ: correlation between qualifying grid position and actual race finish (naive baseline) · Δ = ML ρ − Grid ρ · positive means model outperforms grid order · ML ρ cell: green = beats championship baseline, red = below · methodology