Australian Grand Prix 2026
QualifyingRound 1
Spearman ρ—
FP2 → Race calibration ρ: 0.340
P1 LEC
P2 SAI
P3 GAS
Predicted vs Actual — Qualifying Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | RUS | P1 | 0 |
| P2 | ANT | P7 | -5 |
| P3 | HAD | P5 | -2 |
| P4 | LEC | P4 | 0 |
| P5 | PIA | P3 | +2 |
| P6 | NOR | P8 | -2 |
| P7 | HAM | P2 | +5 |
| P8 | LIN | P10 | -2 |
| P9 | LAW | — | — |
| P10 | BOR | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology