Belgian Grand Prix 2026

FP2 long-run called 47% of race pace ranks correctly; HAM was the exception

• ›9 of 19 drivers finished within 3 positions of their FP2 long-run rank
• ›HAM: FP2 ranked P22, race result P4 (-18 positions)
• ›Best prediction match: ALO — FP2 P19, actual P19

FP2 long-run data is the strongest single predictor of race pace (academic correlation ρ ≈ 0.67 vs race, strongest of any practice session). At 47% of the field within 3 positions, the model's practice-session intelligence is working as designed.

HAM's divergence from their FP2 signal is worth investigating: a meaningful gap between Friday pace and Sunday result suggests either a setup change between FP and race, a significant fuel load difference in long runs, or conditions that changed between sessions.

ANT was quickest through the high speed section, the biggest sector gain of any driver in the comparison group — over 1.76s ahead of the field median.

ANT improved consistently as the session progressed, benefiting from an evolving track surface — their best effort came as conditions peaked.