British Grand Prix 2026

The model predicted PER P17; they finished P14 — this is the model's known bias, not a surprise

• ›Season average delta: better than predicted by 3.1 positions across 22 rounds
• ›This race: predicted P17, actual P14 (Δ -3.0)
• ›Bias direction matched: the model consistently over-rates PER's race-day performance at this level

PER's rolling form shows a persistent better-than-predicted trend. The FP long-run data the model uses captures raw pace, but it doesn't fully capture how PER converts qualifying position to race result under pressure — a trait that shows up reliably at race end.

The model has been correcting for this bias since it was identified. Until PER's race performance converges with their qualifying pace, their predicted positions will be treated as an upper bound rather than a central estimate.

ANT was quickest through the maggots becketts, the biggest sector gain of any driver in the comparison group — over 1.83s ahead of the field median.

ANT improved consistently as the session progressed, benefiting from an evolving track surface — their best effort came as conditions peaked.