Canadian Grand Prix 2026

The model predicted SAI P13; they finished P9 — this is the model's known bias, not a surprise

• ›Season average delta: better than predicted by 3.0 positions across 22 rounds
• ›This race: predicted P13, actual P9 (Δ -4.0)
• ›Bias direction matched: the model consistently over-rates SAI's race-day performance at this level

SAI's rolling form shows a persistent better-than-predicted trend. The FP long-run data the model uses captures raw pace, but it doesn't fully capture how SAI converts qualifying position to race result under pressure — a trait that shows up reliably at race end.

The model has been correcting for this bias since it was identified. Until SAI's race performance converges with their qualifying pace, their predicted positions will be treated as an upper bound rather than a central estimate.

ANT improved consistently as the session progressed, benefiting from an evolving track surface — their best effort came as conditions peaked.

ALB extracted close to the theoretical maximum from the available grip — the gap to a perfect lap across all three sectors was just 0.000s, one of the cleanest extractions in the session.