Japanese Grand Prix 2026
QualifyingRound 3
Spearman ρ—
FP2 → Race calibration ρ: 0.496
P1 BOR
P2 HAM
P3 ANT
Predicted vs Actual — Qualifying Finishing Order
| Actual | Driver | Predicted | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ANT | P2 | -1 |
| P2 | RUS | P1 | +1 |
| P3 | PIA | P4 | -1 |
| P4 | LEC | P3 | +1 |
| P5 | NOR | P5 | 0 |
| P6 | HAM | P8 | -2 |
| P7 | GAS | P9 | -2 |
| P8 | HAD | P10 | -2 |
| P9 | BOR | — | — |
| P10 | LIN | — | — |
Δ = actual position − predicted position · positive = model overrated driver · 0 = exact · all predictions locked pre-session
Prediction locked pre-session · scored against actual result post-race · methodology