Round 3 · Japanese Grand Prix
PREDICTION vs ACTUAL
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ANT | 11 | -10 |
| 2 | PIA | 12 | -10 |
| 3 | LEC | 7 | -4 |
| 4 | RUS | 18 | -14 |
| 5 | NOR | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | HAM | 8 | -2 |
| 7 | GAS | 3 | +4 |
| 8 | VER | 16 | -8 |
| 9 | LAW | 6 | +3 |
| 10 | OCO | 13 | -3 |
| 11 | HUL | 4 | +7 |
| 12 | HAD | 17 | -5 |
| 13 | BOR | 2 | +11 |
| 14 | LIN | 1 | +13 |
| 15 | SAI | 10 | +5 |
| 16 | COL | 9 | +7 |
| 17 | PER | 21 | -4 |
| DNF | ALO | 22 | — |
| DNF | BOT | 20 | — |
| DNF | ALB | 14 | — |
| DNF | STR | 19 | — |
| DNF | BEA | 15 | — |
ROUND ρ-0.05
BIGGEST MISSRUS off by 14 positions
TRUE PACE
Based on pre-race simulation model (avg_lap_time)
| # | Driver | Avg Lap | Δ P1 | Compound | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LIN | 92.451s | — | MEDIUM | Pace Advantage |
| 2 | BOR | 94.318s | +1867ms | SOFT | Pace Deficit |
| 3 | HUL | 94.932s | +2481ms | HARD | Pace Deficit |
| 4 | GAS | 95.078s | +2627ms | HARD | Pace Deficit |
| 5 | LAW | 95.234s | +2783ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 6 | NOR | 95.235s | +2784ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 7 | LEC | 95.285s | +2834ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 8 | COL | 95.581s | +3130ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 9 | HAM | 95.821s | +3370ms | SOFT | Pace Deficit |
| 10 | OCO | 95.899s | +3448ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 11 | PIA | 96.033s | +3582ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 12 | SAI | 96.056s | +3605ms | SOFT | Pace Deficit |
| 13 | ANT | 96.094s | +3643ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 14 | ALB | 96.149s | +3698ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 15 | HAD | 96.324s | +3873ms | HARD | Pace Deficit |
| 16 | VER | 96.337s | +3886ms | HARD | Pace Deficit |
| 17 | BEA | 96.358s | +3907ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 18 | STR | 96.744s | +4293ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 19 | RUS | 96.783s | +4332ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 20 | BOT | 98.657s | +6206ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 21 | PER | 98.902s | +6451ms | HARD | Pace Deficit |
| 22 | ALO | 100.194s | +7743ms | SOFT | Pace Deficit |
| 23 | CRA | 124.993s | +32542ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
PIT STRATEGY VERDICTS
| Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEA | L32 | L15 | -17 laps | Early |
| HAD | L36 | L19 | -17 laps | Early |
| OCO | L34 | L18 | -16 laps | Early |
| VER | L36 | L21 | -15 laps | Early |
| HUL | L36 | L21 | -15 laps | Early |
| BOT | L32 | L19 | -13 laps | Early |
| COL | L28 | L16 | -12 laps | Early |
| PER | L32 | L20 | -12 laps | Early |
| ALO | L12 | L21 | +9 laps | Late |
| GAS | L30 | L21 | -9 laps | Early |
| NOR | L24 | L15 | -9 laps | Early |
| BOR | L13 | L21 | +8 laps | Late |
| LEC | L24 | L16 | -8 laps | Early |
| PIA | L23 | L17 | -6 laps | Early |
| ALB | L24 | L21 | -3 laps | Early |
| LAW | L24 | L21 | -3 laps | Early |
| STR | L24 | L21 | -3 laps | Early |
| LIN | L20 | L18 | -2 laps | Called it |
| RUS | L22 | L20 | -2 laps | Called it |
| SAI | L22 | L21 | -1 laps | Called it |
| ANT | L22 | L21 | -1 laps | Called it |
| HAM | L21 | L21 | Exact | Called it |
CORNER OF THE RACE
Lap 3 — BEA passes BOR (power advantage)
Confidence: 80%Lap 3
QUALIFYING POTENTIAL vs REALITY
| Driver | FP3 Lap | Q Lap | Delta | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 92.334s | 90.627s | +1.707s | Exceeded |
| HAM | 91.056s | 89.567s | +1.489s | Exceeded |
| SAI | 92.377s | 90.927s | +1.450s | Exceeded |
| LIN | 91.518s | 90.109s | +1.409s | Exceeded |
| BOT | 93.635s | 92.330s | +1.305s | Exceeded |
| PIA | 90.364s | 89.132s | +1.232s | Exceeded |
| PER | 93.348s | 92.206s | +1.142s | Exceeded |
| OCO | 91.326s | 90.309s | +1.017s | Exceeded |
| BOR | 91.000s | 89.990s | +1.010s | Exceeded |
| ALO | 93.529s | 92.646s | +0.883s | Exceeded |
| BEA | 91.937s | 91.090s | +0.847s | Exceeded |
| VER | 90.910s | 90.262s | +0.648s | Exceeded |
| ANT | 89.362s | 88.778s | +0.584s | Exceeded |
| STR | 93.485s | 92.920s | +0.565s | Exceeded |
| RUS | 89.616s | 89.076s | +0.540s | Exceeded |
| HUL | 90.658s | 90.358s | +0.300s | Exceeded |
CHAMPIONSHIP TITLE RACE
| Driver | Before | +pts | After | Proj P50 | Title % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANT | 262 | +25 | 287 | 427 | 100% |
| RUS | 197 | +12 | 209 | 316 | 0% |
| ALB | 5 | — | 5 | 7 | 0% |
| ALO | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 0% |
ERS DEPLOYMENT MAP
Log in to view ERS deployment map
DEPLOYAcceleration surplus — ERS battery discharged to motor
HARVESTBraking zones — kinetic energy recovered to battery
LIFT/COASTNo throttle, no brake — coasting or minimal input
CLIPBattery depleted at full throttle — no ERS assist
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