Round 11 · Hungarian Grand Prix
PREDICTION vs ACTUAL
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NOR | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | VER | 5 | -3 |
| 3 | ANT | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | LEC | 7 | -3 |
| 5 | HAM | 2 | +3 |
| 6 | HAD | 4 | +2 |
| 7 | RUS | 8 | -1 |
| 8 | LAW | 9 | -1 |
| 9 | HUL | 10 | -1 |
| 10 | LIN | 11 | -1 |
| 11 | BOR | 12 | -1 |
| 12 | GAS | 15 | -3 |
| 13 | STR | 16 | -3 |
| 14 | ALO | 14 | 0 |
| 15 | COL | 19 | -4 |
| 16 | OCO | 13 | +3 |
| 17 | ALB | 18 | -1 |
| 18 | SAI | 20 | -2 |
| 19 | BEA | 17 | +2 |
| 20 | PIA | 6 | +14 |
| 21 | PER | 22 | -1 |
| 22 | BOT | 21 | +1 |
ROUND ρ0.84
BIGGEST MISSPIA off by 14 positions
TRUE PACE
Based on pre-race simulation model (avg_lap_time)
| # | Driver | Avg Lap | Δ P1 | Compound | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIA | 80.510s | — | MEDIUM | Pace Advantage |
| 2 | LEC | 81.043s | +533ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 3 | HAM | 81.193s | +683ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 4 | NOR | 81.831s | +1321ms | SOFT | Pace Deficit |
| 5 | HUL | 82.617s | +2107ms | HARD | Pace Deficit |
| 6 | STR | 82.913s | +2403ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 7 | GAS | 83.470s | +2960ms | SOFT | Pace Deficit |
| 8 | LAW | 83.536s | +3026ms | HARD | Pace Deficit |
| 9 | OCO | 83.606s | +3096ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 10 | COL | 84.528s | +4018ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 11 | ANT | 85.022s | +4512ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 12 | RUS | 85.272s | +4762ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 13 | ALO | 85.957s | +5447ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 14 | LIN | 86.022s | +5512ms | HARD | Pace Deficit |
| 15 | BEA | 86.080s | +5570ms | SOFT | Pace Deficit |
| 16 | BOR | 86.465s | +5955ms | HARD | Pace Deficit |
| 17 | VER | 87.222s | +6712ms | SOFT | Pace Deficit |
| 18 | SAI | 87.897s | +7387ms | SOFT | Pace Deficit |
| 19 | ALB | 88.361s | +7851ms | SOFT | Pace Deficit |
| 20 | BOT | 89.527s | +9017ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 21 | PER | 90.044s | +9534ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 22 | HAD | 91.803s | +11293ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 23 | ARO | 100.111s | +19601ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 24 | VES | 103.234s | +22724ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 25 | FOR | 104.131s | +23621ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 26 | HER | 106.291s | +25781ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
| 27 | HIR | 111.399s | +30889ms | MEDIUM | Pace Deficit |
PIT STRATEGY VERDICTS
| Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PER | L14 | L45 | +31 laps | Late |
| HUL | L36 | L18 | -18 laps | Early |
| LIN | L36 | L19 | -17 laps | Early |
| LAW | L36 | L20 | -16 laps | Early |
| HAM | L28 | L13 | -15 laps | Early |
| RUS | L12 | L26 | +14 laps | Late |
| STR | L20 | L8 | -12 laps | Early |
| COL | L24 | L14 | -10 laps | Early |
| ALO | L24 | L34 | +10 laps | Late |
| LEC | L24 | L16 | -8 laps | Early |
| OCO | L24 | L16 | -8 laps | Early |
| VER | L19 | L13 | -6 laps | Early |
| SAI | L23 | L18 | -5 laps | Early |
| PIA | L20 | L15 | -5 laps | Early |
| GAS | L20 | L15 | -5 laps | Early |
| HAD | L22 | L18 | -4 laps | Early |
| BEA | L18 | L21 | +3 laps | Late |
| ANT | L24 | L21 | -3 laps | Early |
| NOR | L14 | L16 | +2 laps | Called it |
| ALB | L26 | L25 | -1 laps | Called it |
| BOR | L29 | L28 | -1 laps | Called it |
CORNER OF THE RACE
Lap 3 — RUS passes SAI (power advantage)
Confidence: 80%Lap 3
QUALIFYING POTENTIAL vs REALITY
| Driver | FP3 Lap | Q Lap | Delta | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIA | 79.918s | 77.684s | +2.234s | Exceeded |
| LEC | 79.387s | 77.445s | +1.942s | Exceeded |
| NOR | 79.062s | 77.207s | +1.855s | Exceeded |
| LIN | 79.895s | 78.281s | +1.614s | Exceeded |
| RUS | 79.286s | 77.760s | +1.526s | Exceeded |
| HAD | 79.085s | 77.856s | +1.229s | Exceeded |
| VER | 78.656s | 77.725s | +0.931s | Exceeded |
| HAM | 78.056s | 77.219s | +0.837s | Exceeded |
| ANT | 78.068s | 77.479s | +0.589s | Exceeded |
| ALO | 80.393s | 79.808s | +0.585s | Exceeded |
| OCO | 80.295s | 79.734s | +0.561s | Exceeded |
| HUL | 79.160s | 78.639s | +0.521s | Exceeded |
| BOT | 81.299s | 80.886s | +0.413s | Exceeded |
| LAW | 79.088s | 78.765s | +0.323s | Exceeded |
| STR | 80.933s | 80.659s | +0.274s | Exceeded |
| BOR | 79.338s | 79.069s | +0.269s | Exceeded |
| BEA | 80.312s | 80.233s | +0.079s | Exceeded |
| SAI | 80.660s | 80.621s | +0.039s | On Pace |
| ALB | 80.623s | 80.658s | -0.035s | On Pace |
CHAMPIONSHIP TITLE RACE
| Driver | Before | +pts | After | Proj P50 | Title % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANT | 272 | +15 | 287 | 427 | 100% |
| RUS | 203 | +6 | 209 | 316 | 0% |
| ALB | 5 | — | 5 | 7 | 0% |
| ALO | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 0% |
ERS DEPLOYMENT MAP
Log in to view ERS deployment map
DEPLOYAcceleration surplus — ERS battery discharged to motor
HARVESTBraking zones — kinetic energy recovered to battery
LIFT/COASTNo throttle, no brake — coasting or minimal input
CLIPBattery depleted at full throttle — no ERS assist
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